For those new to the process, this is the first step towards development of the organization for the legislature. Now, the remaining leadership position like Vice-Speaker and Vice-President, Majority Floor Leader, & Majority Whip can be determined. These are positions that are awarded by the Speaker and President based on ability and the support received in getting them elected to their posts.

Following the leadership assignments, the committee Chairs will be announced. These probably have the most impact from the public perspective because the Chairs determine what bills get heard, how quickly they move through the committee, and ultimately whether a bill lives or dies. Announcement of these positions should be made within a few weeks.

Please stay tuned as Hawai`i Political Watch transitions over to coverage of the Legislative session.

This certainly isn’t to say that voter participation shouldn’t be improved. What the public should really be looking at is the fact that we have less than 20% of the voting-age population electing candidates. Voter apathy is a fact of life in the modern world. Unless the candidates get out into the community and engage their constituents on a regular basis, this will never change.

For people who are genuinely concerned about improving turnout and evening the media playing field for candidates, Voter Owned Hawaii is a good place to start. Speak out on issues and support organizations that work for improvements in the participatory process.

Silence is acquiesce.

Nationally, it was an impressive day for the Democrats and it appears that the wave did reach our shores. Locally, the Democrats picked up 2 seats in the Hawaii State House while Governor Linda Lingle handily earned a second term on the 5^th floor of the Capitol.

In our preliminary analysis of the results, the Governor won on all islands with a 2:1 ratio on O`ahu. As these results significantly differ from our projections for the Governor’s race, we will be carefully analyzing election data to see what really happened and why.

While a detailed analysis will not be possible until the precinct breakdowns are released by the Office of Elections, it appears that voter turnout is a key variable. News reports detailed how the Lingle campaign mustered 400 people to perform get-out-the-vote (GOTV) calls and they claim to have reached 200,000 households. Evidently, armed with great data, they were able to get approximately 70,000 voters! Furthermore, one of the unusual anomalies of the 2006 General Election is the statistically miniscule increase of Randy Iwase’s vote between the Primary and General Elections. In the days ahead, as more data becomes available, we hope to find out what is going on.

What is truly amazing is the fact that in spite of the Governor’s strong showing, there was virtually no effect on State House and Senate races. Two Republican incumbents were defeated and her Democratic appointee (Bev Harbin) was drubbed in the Primary, in effect creating another Democratic pick up. The one GOP bright spot in Hawaii State House races was in the perpetually vulnerable 44^th House district where Karen Awana beat Michael Kahikina. The sole beneficiaries of the Lingle/Aiona victory were Linda Lingle and James ‘Duke’ Aiona. Evidently, they did not bring any coattails to the dance.

While there is limited supporting evidence at this time, it appears that the GOTV message must have somehow encouraged voters to split their ticket and vote for Lingle and whatever Democrat was also on their ballot. There really isn’t any other explanation for the 214,000-plus votes that the Governor garnered. Needless to say, this strategy was a winner.

A quick review of the CNN exit poll shows that Lingle beat Iwase across the board. In order for Iwase to pull off the upset, it was necessary for him to secure significant numbers of votes from Asian, union and liberal households. This simply did not happen. In fact an astonishing 43 percent of self identified liberal voters actually cast votes for the Lingle/Aiona ticket. Iwase was severely under funded in his gubernatorial bid, and combined with the relatively low level of support from these key groups, the campaign was over.

In spite of Lingle’s electoral triumph, there is little support for Republicans in Hawaii. This presents a problem for the GOP, particularly as they consider a successor to Lingle in 2010. If the Democrats apply the same discipline used to build large, veto-proof majorities in the State Legislature and run campaigns that rack up large margins for United States House and Senate candidates, the 2006 Elections in Hawaii may well be viewed as a last hurrah for Hawaii Republicans.

Election day is here. A day to exercise our fundamental obligation in a democracy, voting. So be sure to get out and vote. Call your friends and relatives to remind them too. Remember, as we’ve repeatedly mentioned, even a blank vote has a significance.

As we march out to do our civic duty, here are a few facts to be aware of. There are approximately 975,000 residents of voting age in Hawai`i. Of that number, 662,728 are registered to vote. And, with turnout estimated to be in the 50%-60% range, 180,000 will probably be enough votes to win a state-wide race. This means that 18.5% of the voting-age population will be electing our next Governor and Senator.

If you think that your vote doesn’t count or that one more vote won’t make a difference, you couldn’t be more wrong. Think of all the close races in the Primary (the Kaua`i mayor’s race was decided by 2 votes) or for that matter, the tie in the 1988 House race. Your vote does matter and you can either choose to be heard or to acquiesce to those 18.5% who do vote for a winning candidate. Make your voice heard today!

Governor

If you have read our previous analysis of the Primary Election results, you know that we felt that there was a potential for an Iwase upset. We performed further analysis using 2002 data where we apportioned the Case votes in a similar fashion to the Aila votes in 2006. In other words, we attempted to show what the results would have been if there had been no other influences like Primary opponents, the Case-Akaka race in 2006, or the Case challenge to Hirono in 2002.

Prediction: Iwase upsets Lingle by less than 1%.

Senator

There’s just no denying that Senator Akaka will win this one walking away.

Congressional District 1

Although Rep. Abercrombie has said that he takes his opponent seriously, we do not.

Congressional District 2

This is perhaps the most difficult race to handicap. There have been no polls released and neither candidate has ever run in the district. Both candidates had lackluster performances in their one debate. However, based on the amount of money available for TV ads and the support or her former Democratic opponents, it looks like Hirono will be the winner.

Maui Mayor

Charmaine Tavares pulled about 1,000 more votes than incumbent Alan Arakawa in the Primary. The major development that will affect this race are respective endorsements. In a rather surprising announcement, Senator Inouye endorsed the (nominally) Republican Tavares while Governor Lingle threw her support behind Arakawa.

Prediction: A victory for Tavares based on the fact that a substantial portion of the votes from Apana will likely go to her.

Editors Note:

We’d like to single out the Advertiser editorial staff for their incredibly inept article in the Sunday Focus section. First, the number of registered voters has actually dropped since the comparable 2002 election. Second, as we have frequently pointed out, making comparisons using presidential and gubernatorial elections is inane. Their insistence on drawing conclusions based on limited understanding of turnout numbers and lazy reporting is a disservice to their readers.