Hawai`i Political Watch

Commentary on the organization of the State Senate and House.

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 Hawaii Political Watch Episode 13: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

From media reports, it seems like Calvin Say has retained the Speaker’s position in the State House. He was able to garner the necessary 26+ votes and will be officially elected to the post on the opening day of the session. Conversely, State Senate President Robert Bunda looks to be on the way out. Although nothing official has come out of the Capitol, it seems like a new President will preside over the body this year.

For those new to the process, this is the first step towards development of the organization for the legislature. Now, the remaining leadership position like Vice-Speaker and Vice-President, Majority Floor Leader, & Majority Whip can be determined. These are positions that are awarded by the Speaker and President based on ability and the support received in getting them elected to their posts.

Following the leadership assignments, the committee Chairs will be announced. These probably have the most impact from the public perspective because the Chairs determine what bills get heard, how quickly they move through the committee, and ultimately whether a bill lives or dies. Announcement of these positions should be made within a few weeks.

Please stay tuned as Hawai`i Political Watch transitions over to coverage of the Legislative session.

A roundup of the 2006 General Election.

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 Hawaii Political Watch, Episode 12: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

There’s been a lot of discussion in the media regarding the turnout for the General Election. 52.7% is a low number but there are a couple of factors that account for it. First, the most recent comparable years are 1998 & 2002 where the turnout was 57%. Although the turnout was lower this year, there were substantially fewer State Senate races which would definitely reduce the number of people turning out. Second, Hawai`i’s conservative approach to purging of the voter rolls means that there are a substantial number of names of people who have moved out of state or died. This also reduces the turnout rate. In combination, these could easily account for the drop.

This certainly isn’t to say that voter participation shouldn’t be improved. What the public should really be looking at is the fact that we have less than 20% of the voting-age population electing candidates. Voter apathy is a fact of life in the modern world. Unless the candidates get out into the community and engage their constituents on a regular basis, this will never change.

For people who are genuinely concerned about improving turnout and evening the media playing field for candidates, Voter Owned Hawaii is a good place to start. Speak out on issues and support organizations that work for improvements in the participatory process.

Silence is acquiesce.

Congratulations to Senator Akaka, Congressman Abercrombie, Mazie Hirono, Governor Lingle & Lt. Governor Aiona, Charmaine Tavares, 2 new State Senators, and 13 new House members. We also need to include the incumbents, council, DOE, and OHA candidates who won.

Nationally, it was an impressive day for the Democrats and it appears that the wave did reach our shores. Locally, the Democrats picked up 2 seats in the Hawaii State House while Governor Linda Lingle handily earned a second term on the 5^th floor of the Capitol.

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It was a long night for us at Hawai`i Election Watch. As of 1:15am, the Elections Office still hasn’t provided a statewide summary! Please check in the following days for a full analysis of the election results.

Lisen to our commentary on the results after the 2nd printout.

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 2006 General Election Night Coverage: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Before we begin the blog for today, we’d like to take the opportunity to thank everyone who has visited the site during this election season. Your patronage demonstrates that there are people out there who are willing to take the time to investigate issues and candidates in order to make an informed decision in the ballot booth. Yesterday, over 230 people viewed our predictions and listened to the podcast. Thank you.

Election day is here. A day to exercise our fundamental obligation in a democracy, voting. So be sure to get out and vote. Call your friends and relatives to remind them too. Remember, as we’ve repeatedly mentioned, even a blank vote has a significance.

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Predictions for the General Election.

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 http://www.clubforgrowth.org/2005/08/hawaiis_rino_governor.php: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

The time has come for us to put our reputation on the line and make our predictions for the General Election. These are not endorsements, they are predictions based on available information and some gut feeling.

Governor

If you have read our previous analysis of the Primary Election results, you know that we felt that there was a potential for an Iwase upset. We performed further analysis using 2002 data where we apportioned the Case votes in a similar fashion to the Aila votes in 2006. In other words, we attempted to show what the results would have been if there had been no other influences like Primary opponents, the Case-Akaka race in 2006, or the Case challenge to Hirono in 2002.

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